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17 February 2008

Hype Cycle for Social Media



It seems like we are moving through the traditional technology hype cycle for social media (just like every other new technology that we've seen in the past).

The social media hype cycle appears to be heading away from the 'peak of inflated expectations' and towards the 'trough of disillusionment" during 2008. This is a good thing, since it is only when we are past all this can we begin to work out how to use the technology effectively and to monetize it successfully (a.k.a. the 'plateau of productivity').

I know that I am experiencing online social networking fatigue and anecdotally a lot of users are mentioning it in conversation with me too. However, business folks are only just starting to get their heads around this space. The wave of early adopter interest is moving - to video (check out Loic's seesmic) perhaps?

Methinks consolidation and realignment are the watchwords for this sector.

By Carruthers via Aide-mémoire


1 comment:

alecthegeek said...

Apart from advertising, does anyone have any fresh ideas about potential revenue models?

After the last .com crash there was a return to basics i.e. how do we pay the bills and get a return on our investment money. However it seems to me that people are beginning to forget that painful lesson and throwing large amounts of money at over hyped projects with dubious business plans...

E.g. How can facebook possibly be worth over a billion dollars?

There will be tears before bedtime, mark my words, and given the general problems at the moment because of the US sub-prime crisis it could be a bumpy landing.